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n part one of this blog we examined some of things that may decide the outcome of this tournament and we took a close look at Team Canada and where they may finish, In part two we will look at the remaining teams that will threaten to medal at the 2010 games.
Team Sweden
Here's the full lineup:
Goalkeepers include Jonas Gustavsson (Toronto Maple Leafs), Stefan Liv (HV71) and Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers).
Defencemen are Tobias Enstrom (Atlanta Thrashers), Magnus Johansson (Linkopings HC), Niklas Kronwall (Detroit Red Wings), Nicklas Lidstrom (Detroit Red Wings), Douglas Murray (San Jose Sharks), Johnny Oduya (New Jersey Devils), Henrik Tallinder (Buffalo Sabres) and Mattias Ohlund (Tampa Bay Lightning).
At forward are Daniel Alfredsson (Ottawa Senators), Nicklas Backstrom (Washington Capitals), Loui Eriksson (Dallas Stars), Peter Forsberg (Modo Hockey), Tomas Holmstrom (Detroit Red Wings), Patric Hornqvist (Nashville Predators), Fredrik Modin (Columbus Blue Jackets), Samuel Pahlsson (Columbus Blue Jackets), Daniel Sedin (Vancouver Canucks), Henrik Sedin (Vancouver Canucks), Mattias Weinhandl (Dynamo Moskva) and Henrik Zetterberg (Detroit Red Wings).
Outlook
Team Sweden has the Sedins who are playing some of the best hockey in the world and that first line combo plus likely Alfredsson could be very tough but past this the Swede's lack the depth of their championship team, Holmstrom and Zetterberg are great pieces but Forsberg and Alfredsson are aging and Sundin is gone, This team has one very good scoring line an ok second line and is weak defensively given the level of competition.
Odds
The Swedes are relative long shots and books have them all over the map but for an outright win around +700 great value if you sensed a shocker but they are just simply to weak at the back the goaltending around the world is too strong and they lack the four solid lines they had in years they really threatened and won.
Prediction
Right now I'd say this team could easily fall out of the medals and have a real disappointing finish in 5th, Finland and Czech Republic are really closing on Sweden talent wise during these 2010 games and with hot goaltending could keep the Swedes from medaling.
Next we move on the USA
FORWARDS: David Backes, Dustin Brown, Ryan Callahan, Chris Drury, Patrick Kane, Ryan Kesler, Phil Kessel, Jamie Langenbrunner, Ryan Malone, Zach Parise, Joe Pavelski, Bobby Ryan, Paul Stastny.
DEFENSEMEN: Erik Johnson, Jack Johnson, Mike Komisarek, Paul Martin, Brooks Orpik, Brian Rafalski, Ryan Suter.
GOALTENDERS: Ryan Miller, Jonathan Quick, Tim Thomas.
Outlook
The US brings in great goaltending with Ryan Miller and has a nice mix of skill and tough and young and old, this is very much a Brian Burke blue collar team with the occasional star and it's hard to argue this approach hasn't worked in the NHL, the only real knock in comparison to the Canadians is youth, alot of youngsters who maybe haven't played and won big games.
Odds
Team USA offers the best odds at +1000 or more of a team with a real shot to win this tournament they won't have the Canadians expectations or Russia's fire-power but in games with playoff atmosphere ugly often wins, and not to say that its ugly hockey but going to the net winning the battles for the puck, having the grit and determination to make plays and this team has many players in that image.
Prediction
I really think the Americans could win this tournament but to do it Ryan Miller is going to have to be special, and he may have played a little too much hockey already to be as BIG as he'll have to be, so I'll put the Americans likely second or third with an outside chance of stealing the big prize. |
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Under 6.5 for 1.5 Units ATL/PHI
Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings. The Atlanta Thrasher's total are always quite high as they are among the most scored on and highest scoring teams but look inside their last two games neither of them went over a total of three goals. Plus both teams have really improved defensively inside of their last 5 games and both teams have experienced a nice drop in goals allowed. Lastly you see the trend I posted about head-to-heads between these teams as they trend heavily under, well the other factor I like is a correction of sorts for Philly they have been scoring lights out recently and probably scoring more goals average per game inside their last ten games, a trend that just by balance will shift back to where it was prior given time... and realy it probably has been long enough. |
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We are just about to experience a break in the NHL season so that the selected players can represent their countries in 2010 Olympics in Vancouver, although ice hockey has a long history in the Winter Games this will only be the 4th time that pro's have competed and their future within the games is uncertain as the NHL owners and executives, have legitimate scheduling concerns and are faced with ever present reality their teams star player could be injured while competing at the games.
What makes this event so special, other than the four years between chances is the rivalries it's not just local geographic pride in the case of many NHL rivalries eg. Toronto, Montreal or other pro franchise rivalries. This involves National pride and for Canada, Russia and the United States these rivalries run deep and can be traced back to the "Cold War" era, and these teams and their countries want nothing more than the bragging rights of being champs. The players involved have often dreamed of these type of victories since they were boys wearing the national jersey is something special.
Although this is a twelve team tournament their is a consensus handful of teams that have a real shot at winning this outright; Canada, Russia, Sweden and the United States have to be favored to medal with maybe Czech Republic being the sensible longshot.
The Tournament is divided by three groups and is comprised of 12 teams, First is the round robins
based on standings overall the top four teams get a by to the Quarterfinals and the other eight will have a playoff based on where they finished to see who moves on eg. 5th plays 12th, 6th plays 11th and so on.
Then Semi-Finals and of course Finals unlike NHL this is a single game elimination tournament, every goal is very key and one bad outing by a goaltender during a key game and your done.
Teams
Canada
Forwards
Patrice Bergeron, L'Ancienne-Lorette, Que. (Boston Bruins)
Sidney Crosby, Cole Harbour, N.S. (Pittsburgh Penguins) Alternate captain
Ryan Getzlaf, Regina, Sask. (Anaheim Ducks)
Dany Heatley, Calgary, Alta. (San Jose Sharks)
Jarome Iginla, St. Albert, Alta. (Calgary Flames) Alternate captain
Patrick Marleau, Aneroid Sask. (San Jose Sharks)
Brenden Morrow, Carlyle, Sask. (Dallas Stars)
Rick Nash, Brampton, Ont. (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Mike Richards, Kenora, Ont. (Philadelphia Flyers)
Corey Perry, Peterborough, Ont. (Anaheim Ducks)
Eric Staal, Thunder Bay, Ont. (Carolina Hurricanes)
Joe Thornton, St. Thomas, Ont. (San Jose Sharks)
Jonathan Toews, Winnipeg, Man. (Chicago Blackhawks)
Defence
Dan Boyle, Ottawa, Ont. (San Jose Sharks)
Drew Doughty, Ottawa, Ont. (LA Kings)
Duncan Keith, Penticton, B.C. (Chicago Blackhawks)
Scott Niedermayer, Cranbrook, B.C. (Anaheim Ducks) - Captain
Chris Pronger, Dryden, Ont. (Philadelphia Flyers) - Alternate captain
Brent Seabrook, Tsawwassen, B.C. (Chicago Blackhawks)
Shea Weber, Sicamous, B.C. (Nashville Predators)
Goalies
Roberto Luongo, Montreal, Que. (Vancouver Canucks)
Martin Brodeur, Montreal, Que. (New Jersey Devils)
Marc-Andre Fleury, Sorel, Que. (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Outlook
Team Canada is well balanced and have a nice mix of veteran leadership and probably the best defense overall of any of the teams attending, you also have to like their goaltending situation. What will be interesting is how they react to the pressure of playing at home as a country Canada and it's national pride are so intertwined with Hockey the expectation and excitement surrounding this event has to be weighing on it's players. Their World Junior team failed to repeat for a record sixth straight time despite having home ice and the pressure to succeed in front of friends, family and every other family in Canada certainly played a part in that.
Odds
Currently the Canadians are going off at even odds, not bad given the strength of this team somehow personally I doubt they will be able to win their countries most prized medal of the 2010 games because of the pressure they will be under during the games. Much like the U.S. dream teams these players will be followed and quoted, and will be the focus of all of Canada's national attention but the level of competition is so close since pro's have been allowed to compete in ice hockey no team has won a gold twice, and Russia hasn't won yet and brings Ovechkin, Malkin, Kovalchuk, Datsyuk, Gonchar, and a few other names you'd recognize to the table.
Prediction
Based on the level of pressure and competition if I were to predict just were I thought the Canadian team would finish it would be second or third, home ice is a blessing and a curse in this tournament a two goal visitor lead quiets the crowd and strikes fear in the hearts of what will be a very pro Canadian crowd, I just don't think they will be able to survive mentally what will be the toughest emotional roller coaster any of these national teams will face.
This Blog is getting quite long so I'll finish the post tomorrow with USA, Russia, Sweden and their projected finishes... |
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By Freddy Wills | January 26, 2010
Michigan State at Michigan (4, 131)
Tonight’s game of the night will be a Big-10 rivalry game which will tip off on Tuesday on ESPN between Michigan and Michigan State.
Michigan has been playing tough opponents; in fact this will be their fourth straight opponent that is ranked in the Top 25! Michigan lost the first two in conference between Wisconsin and Purdue, but shocked Uconn at home winning by 5.
All about Michigan
Michigan believe it or not returned 4 starters from last year, a team that won 21 games. They were picked as a preseason Top 15 team and have not lived up to expectations.
After the 3-0 start they have gone 7-9. They are just 3-7 ATS as a favorite, but have been perfect when they are under dogs at 5-0 ATS. Michigan State, beat Michigan last year on this court 54-42.
The Spartans are 7-0 in the conference so far this year. MSU the preseason #2 team returned 3 starters from last years 31 win team. Coach Tom Izzo always has his team in contention and nothing looks different from this years 17-3 squad.
Stats, do they tell it all?
When you look at the stats between these two they appear to be one sided. I have put together a list of their ranks out of the 347 teams.
Offensive Field Goal Percentage:
Michigan State (15) 45.5
Michigan (217) 42.2
Defensive Field Goal Percentage:
Michigan State (34) 39.7
Michigan (210) 44.0
Rebound Margin:
Michigan State (3) +10.7
Michigan (275) –3.3
The stats weigh heavily in Michigan State’s favor, but as we have already seen Michigan plays much better at home and when they are under dogs. Tonight they will be home dogs @ +4.5 and I expect that line to rise by game time being that it is on ESPN. My first lean here was Michigan because they will be the ESPN home dog. A strategy that works well year in and year out in college football has not been tested by me in a while in basketball.
Trends:
Michigan St
• Spartans are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5.
• Spartans are 23-3-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
• Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Spartans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.
• Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
• Spartans are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Spartans are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Spartans are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.
• Spartans are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 Tuesday games.
Michigan
• Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Wolverines are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
• Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
• Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Wolverines are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
• Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
• Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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